on safari

On January 2nd, the Sri Lankan government has cancelled the ceasefire agreement between the government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The economist titled yesterday: “The government and the Tigers stop pretending they have a ceasefire”. As a matter of fact, the war has continued over the past two years, without however, the agreement being annulled.

In my last post on Sri Lanka (on my old blog, this link might break some day) I wrote:

“Today the LTTE and the government security forces, continue to fight in the northeast, although none of the parties have officially affronted the ceasefire agreement yet. […] Neither the government nor the LTTE want to take the responsibility for beginning a new war. […] It therefore seems most likely that the status quo will be maintained with the government forces and the Tamil Tigers continuing occasional attacks in the north and east, while Rajapakse will emphasise economic development in the south.”

So what does it mean if the government cancels the ceasefire? Very probably it means that the Sinhalese/Buddhist pressure on the government has increased over the past few months. It must have increased so much that the government no more fears the decline of the country’s international reputation. The anti-Norway movement in Sri Lanka has thus won. The Sinhalese hardliners don’t want a federal solution for the “Tamil problem”, they use populist methods like myths and folklore to explain why the territory cannot be separated.

Starting new peace talks will be even more difficult under the current circumstances. Nationalism, populism and Buddhism will do anything in their power to prevent further peace attempts. I believe at this point only the international community could pressure the government to continue working on a peaceful settlement of the conflict as the local opponents have lost their voices.

This entry was posted on Friday, January 4th, 2008 at 4:43 am and is filed under sri lanka.